Water FractalTier 1
at 5/24 Fayble Online Regional
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 16.2% | 7 | 4-2-1 | 64.3% | 59.1% | 53.8% | +1.9 |
| Wind Allies | 10.8% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 10.8% | 4 | 4-0-0 | 100.0% | 75.0% | 65.5% | +9.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 56.5% | +6.2 |
| Fire Astra Cleric | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 50.6% | +1.0 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.7% | -3.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.1% | +6.5 |
| Fire Suzaku | 2.7% | 2 | 1-0-1 | 75.0% | 58.3% | 53.5% | +3.4 |
| Slimes | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.7% | -8.5 |
| Water Allies | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Polkhawk | 2.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.4% | -2.5 |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.0% | +6.5 |
| Water Tera Silvie | 2.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.7 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.7% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 45.6% | -3.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 2.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 2.7% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +1.5 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Losers more often ran: Tariff Ring, Disenchant.
No cards correlated with winning.
Show all 27 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 25 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Song of Frost | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frostbind | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Chill to the Bone | -0.67 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Captivating Opulence | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Wand of Frost | +0.67 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| Frozen Dismissal | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Unstable Fractal | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Nullifying Lantern | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Fractal of Refreshment | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Disenchant | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Novice Healer | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Awakened Deacon | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polaris, Twinkling Cauldron | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Arisanna, Herbalist Prodigy | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Turbo Charge | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ingredient Pouch | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jianyu, Fate's Premonition | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lost in Thought | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Fractal of Intrusion | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 |